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The buyer’s market in Greater Phoenix is still young at just over 5 weeks old but isn’t getting worse thanks to supply stabilizing over the past two weeks. For some, this scenario brings anticipation of a decline in sales prices, however there’s more to this buyer’s market than meets the eye.

It may be hard to believe, but recessions are historically the beginning of a turnaround for the housing market. After enduring more than 2 years of declining sales, sellers and buyers may start moving and transacting again. While recessions are negative for the economy, two things typically occur that turn the housing market positive.

With many existing home owners comfortably staying put these days, more attention is placed on first-time home buyers, affordability, and supply of homes. The first thing that comes to mind is the choice between renting and buying. According to RealData the median cost of a 3 bedroom apartment at a 50+ unit complex in Q2 2023 was $2,100 per month in Maricopa County.

Well the balanced market didn’t last long, 7 weeks to be exact. Last month the Federal Reserve gave the housing industry a much needed gift. Not only did they not raise the Federal Funds Rate, they also announced their intention to drop it three times in 2024. Conventional mortgage rates responded by dropping from 7.1% to 6.62% within 2 days.

Greater Phoenix has moved out of a seller’s market and into a balanced market, but it’s unclear how long this opportunity will last for buyers. December is typically the calm before the storm each year for the housing market, and this year is no different. New listings are at their lowest this month as many sellers opt to wait until January to list their home.

Buyers who felt they lost out on the buyer’s market last year will be getting another chance this year. The Greater Phoenix housing market, on the whole, only has a few days left before it enters a balanced market. However, as 18 cities are still in seller’s markets, there are 11 that are either already in balance or in buyer’s markets.

The 4th quarter is here, and this is the best time of year to be a buyer in Greater Phoenix! Inventory continues to rise, up 22% in 10 weeks to be exact, and price reductions typically peak in October and November. Most sellers listing in October are motivated to close on their homes before the end of the year, but few are more motivated than builders.

It’s the moment you’ve been waiting for, less competition and more supply in Greater Phoenix! Active supply is up 40% from this time last year, but all that gain has been achieved over the last 6 weeks with an increase of 45%. The market is in the early stage of shifting out of an insane seller market and into a mere frenzy seller market. Before we know it, it could be a regular old hot seller market where properties still appreciate but take multiple weeks to sell.